Ethan Quinn vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• When examining recent second serve performance, Quinn has a slight edge with a success rate of 48.21% compared to Carabelli's 44.69%. Could this give Quinn an advantage? Likely so, as it correlates well with match outcomes.
• In the return game, Carabelli outmatches Quinn by winning 48.25% of opponent second serve points versus Quinn's 46.75%.
• Carabelli also leads in first serve returns, with a 28.74% success rate compared to Quinn's 25.85%, an important metric for predicting the favorite.
• Under pressure, Quinn is better at saving breakpoints, with a 56.63% success rate compared to Carabelli's 54.16%.
• Over the past year, Carabelli has a slightly higher overall match win rate at 63.41%, while Quinn stands at 60%.
• Considering best surface performance, Carabelli excels on clay with a 65% win record, whereas Quinn achieves his best on indoor hard courts at 61%.
• This past year, Carabelli has shown dominant performance in Challenger/ITF tournaments, winning 78.26% of matches, whereas Quinn has secured a 58.97% win rate in the same tier.
• Directly head-to-head, Quinn leads having won their only encounter, and historically performs better under extreme pressure, such as in tiebreakers.
• Carabelli, however, shows strength in deciding sets if the match extends, winning 72% of all such sets over the last year against Quinn's 57% success rate.
• Carabelli also has a higher breakpoint conversion percentage at 35.89%, compared to Quinn's 32.69%, which could be crucial in critical game moments.
• Opponents' quality also plays a role, with Quinn typically facing higher-ranked players (average rank 187.53) relative to Carabelli's average opponent rank of 240 over the last year.

Editorial Prediction (June 23, 2025, UTC):

As Carabelli and Quinn prepare to face off, multiple factors weigh in determining the likely winner in this clash. Quinn's superior second serve performance could give him an initial edge, helping him maintain serve more effectively.

However, Carabelli's ability to return serves, both first and second, provides him a distinct advantage, potentially creating more break opportunities and keeping pressure on Quinn.

Past performance under pressure reveals a mixed picture; Quinn saves more breakpoints, an advantage when fending off threats, yet Carabelli's stronger performance in deciding sets could prove decisive if the match extends beyond two sets.

Historically, Quinn clinched their only past encounter, suggesting comfort and confidence against Carabelli. Quinn also edges out in pressure situations, like tiebreaks, which might be pivotal under tight scoring circumstances.

Given Carabelli's high win rate on clay and a formidable breakpoint conversion rate, if the match finds its way to the clay courts or hinge on critical breaks, Carabelli might leverage these strengths effectively.

Ultimately, balancing recent form, surface preferences, and pressure performance, Carabelli is poised to exploit his edge in return games and breakpoints. However, factoring in the head-to-head result and Quinn's composure under pressure, Quinn appears slightly favored. Still, if Carabelli can push into a deciding set, his opportunities to win greatly increase. Therefore, Carabelli is favored to take the win.